This letter makes a number of important points, and I think we can see parallels in our own society: Trump is supported a lot by lower-income people who are too busy with their own lives to figure out that the man lies constantly. So it stands to reason that if you disproportionately hurt the more sophisticated Russians, the ones most likely to figure out that the state media is dishonest, it does nothing to help end Putin's war or Putin's rule. It can even make the situation worse.
Unfortunately, this letter tells us nothing about what we should be doing instead.
I, for one, have sent money to Meduza (independent Russian media, now blocked in Russia) and OVD-Info (Russian human rights organization) as well as the Red Cross (for Ukraine assistance). One can also give directly to the Ukrainian military. I am interested in accepting a Ukrainian refugee in my home, and I would accept a Russian refugee just as easily. But what is the most effective thing we can do to thwart Putin? That I am not sure about.
Still, consider that Russia has massive stockpiles of weapons, and factories to make more. In the long term, sanctions can reduce Putin’s ability to wage war, but in the short term he has enough reserve firepower to reduce every Ukrainian city to rubble if he wants (and that’s without using nukes!). Meanwhile, I am persuaded that badly-targeted sanctions that hurt the middle class will do nothing to reduce Putin’s power. Are Ayatollah Khomeini or Kim Jong Un less powerful because of sanctions? No. Their people may live in poverty, but they are gods in their own lands. Kim even has nukes.
Therefore, my advice is to use donations before sanctions. Rather than refusing to do business with Russia, companies could instead take every dollar of profit earned from Russia, and donate it to Russian and Ukrainian organizations that fight Putinism in one way or another, whether it be by helping Russians gain access to independent media, or helping political opposition, or by sending helmets, body armor, generators, food and fuel to Ukraine (assuming our governments are already sending enough weapons). Similarly, if you are buying goods at a discount from Russia, calculate how much money you saved this way and spend it on anti-Putin organizations.
As you do business with Russians, perhaps it is worthwhile to send pictures of destroyed high-rise buildings in Ukraine, labeled “special military operation”. Don’t be judgemental, just ask: “are you aware of what Putin is doing?” Consider, too, that China has stepped in to fill some of the gaps caused by the departure of Western multinational companies. As China increases trade with Russia, they will not take the same opportunity to have conversations about the invasion.
I’ve seen several pieces of evidence that Putin’s propaganda turned rank-and-file Russian soldiers into cannon fodder, because they were told about the Ukrainian military being weak, about Ukraine being run by “Nazis” even though the president is Jewish, and about Ukrainians being their kin who would welcome new leadership. To the surprise of almost everyone outside Russia, these delusions went straight to the top: Putin believes some of his own lies, so his invasion force was initially prepared for an environment where those lies were true, and they suffered heavy losses because they were wrong about basic facts. Consider how this Russian POW describes his experience.
So it should be noted that not that many apartments have been hit — yet. The Russians are using imprecise munitions and some soldiers care less about collateral damage than others, but so far only 406 civilian deaths have been recorded, compared to Russia’s alleged losses of over 11,000 (according to Ukrainian armed forces, or 2,000–3,000 according to U.S. officials). EDIT: either I was off-base or Russia got barbaric very quickly. Mariupol was largely destroyed in a single month, and now I see what might be a full-on genocidal attack on civilians in Bucha, a suburb northwest of Kyiv.
Compare this with U.S. losses in Iraq: 4,431 killed in 8 years (with far more than 100,000 civilian casualties). It will be no surprise if Putin demands more destruction of civilians, or if soldiers turn a blind eye to where their bombs are landing. And it won’t be that difficult for Russia to choke off electricity, water, food, heat, communications and medicine in the big cities. They’ve already done this in Mariupol. But the military’s lack of understanding of their own invasion is an important fact that extends to Russian society as a whole. People in the free world can take advantage of this by showing Russians evidence that Putin’s propaganda is false.
Some Russians will give excuses for Putin’s “special operation”. Just ask them about UN resolution A/ES-11/L.1 against Russia’s invasion: 141 countries demanded “that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine”; only 5 countries voted against, all of them dictatorships — including Russia.
Of Russia’s 14 neighbors, only one supported Russia (Belarus); all others condemned Russia or abstained. Ask: which is more likely? That there is a vast global conspiracy to lie about the “special military operation”, or that Putin shuts down all truthful Russian media? Sure, you are probably talking to a pro-Putin zealot, but always assume first that you’re talking to a person who can be educated and reasoned with. And by the way — this is my advice in American politics too.
